Experts: Political Spending Is Booming
K.C. Neel -- Multichannel News, 3/3/2008 1:48:00 AM
Local cable advertising may be suffering a bit from the soft economy, but political spending is booming and experts predict record revenue will be generated from candidates around the country by November.
Tim Kay, director of political strategy for National Cable Communications, says spot cable is grabbing between 15%-20% of the political dollars being spent this year on all elections, despite some news reports that suggest that TV ads are having a negligible affect on the success of those campaigns. A recent Minneapolis Star-Tribune article reported that TV ads are less influential than in years past. The article quotes Darrell West, a Brown University professor of political science and author of “Air Wars,” saying, “This is a message election. The economy and Iraq cannot be spun, so ads aren’t very influential in shaping agenda.”
But Kay counters that at least two candidates have been able to increase their visibility by using TV ads. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) were relatively unknown when their campaigns got off the ground. Clearly, TV advertising helped them become more recognizable among constituents.
To be sure, traditional media is changing and candidates are more willing to try new things. That includes local spot advertising. “Broadcast viewing is down, but people are still getting their information from TV, and more often cable,” Kay said.
Cable networks have been racking up record ratings with the several candidate debates that have been televised. And Sen. Hillary Clinton bought an hour of time on Hallmark Channel earlier in the campaign; something Kay said no candidate would have considered a few years ago.
A recent analysis of advertising spending in Ohio found that cable operators were grabbing 70% of the spots being bought by the Clinton and Sen. Obama campaigns. Obama’s campaign has been propelled by the Web, Kay said, but he is still consistently spending money on TV advertising.
“In Minnesota, Obama spent $80,000 on cable advertising,” Kay said. “That’s significant.”
Experts predict that political spending on TV ads could top out at $2.5 billion. If cable grabs the top end of what it’s been getting so far, that could mean as much $400 million for local cable spots, Kay said. The numbers will vary according to each state and the specific elections being held there, including local and state campaigns. That’s a huge increase over the $250 million that cable generated in 2004 during the last presidential election.
Whether that offsets the softness cable operators are experiencing in some of their core segments including auto sales and home-related products like furnishings, remains to be seen. However, in swing states or in states with multiple campaigns, the numbers may be strong enough to negate decreases in other segments.
“The Internet is playing a big part of that. But television continues to lure candidates as well and cable is becoming more attractive as a way of reaching constituents,” Kay said. “More people are tuning into cable and moving away from broadcast. And local cable is a great way to target specific audiences.”
CAB, NCC Set Local Standards
02/05/2008Harris Plugs Into Google TV Ads
10/16/2008Burke Talks Up Local Cable Advertising
05/19/2003COREMedia Connects With Google TV Ads Data
10/16/2008Local Cable Ad Sales, 5/23/06
05/23/2006
