Set-Top Shipments to Hit 200 Million by 2013
Survey Sees Annual Growth Rate of 36%
by George Winslow -- Multichannel News, 8/11/2009 3:09:38 PM
The transition to digital television and increasing competition between operators will help push worldwide set-top box shipments to 200 million by 2013, according to a new report from Parks Associates.
As operators rapidly more boxes for high-definition TV, DVR and interactive services, set-top box shipments will see a 36% cumulative average annual growth rate, according to Parks.
The Set-Top Boxes: Outlook report does not provides a breakdown between standard-definition and HD set-tops, but Parks Associates research analyst Jayant S. Dasari notes that most of the newer boxes being shipped in North America are MPEG-4 or HVC.264 boxes that allow operators to more efficiently handle the higher-bandwidth requirements of HD content.
A major driver for new set-top box shipments is the move to
expand digital offerings. "Comcast, Time Warner Cable and all the leading MSOs
have set aside considerable amount of their cap ex [capital expenditures] for
2008 and 2009 to provide digital to analog converts," Dasari said.
That push to reclaim analog bandwidth will also help the operators add more high def content.
"The second big trend we see is the growth in HD and the support for HD content," he noted. "The satellite providers have been leading in that aspect in the sheer number of channels ... but we are seeing similar trends in telcos and cable as well. The operators obviously see an opportunity to get higher ARPUs when subscribers start to move to higher tier services, which include HD."
In North America, Dasari estimates that "the bulk of the set-top boxes [being deployed by operators] today would be HD capable" and that operators are rapidly deploying MPEG-4 capable boxes to handle more HD content.
"The chips and MPEG-4 codecs now seem to be at a price point where they are quite affordable," he explained. "In North America, my understanding is that over 80% if not close to 90% of the boxes that were shipped in late 2008 and [so far this year] have been MPEG-4 capable."
Global set-top box shipments also show a growing demand for DVR-enabled devices, boxes capable of handing Tru2way or interactive services and set-top boxes that could be connected to the Internet, Dasari said.
Dasari believes that most U.S. major operators will have upgraded their head-ends to be Tru2way capable by 2012 and 2013 but the major shipments of Tru2way boxes to their customers "won't really gain steam until towards the end of this year and 2010."
Another major trend will be set-top boxes that can be connected to consumer-electronic devices or a broadband connection, which would allow subscribers to access the growing amount of HD content on the internet.
A separate Parks survey found that about one-third of U.S. broadband households are currently "very interested" in a set-top box that is connected to the internet, though less than 10% were willing to pay a monthly fee for the service.
Dasari expects that in North America "virtually 100% of set-top boxes" shipping in 2013 will be connected boxes.
Parks' estimate of annual set-top box shipments includes only boxes that are sent from operators to their customers. These estimates exclude digital-to-analog converters, as well as standalone digital video recorders, such as TiVo boxes sold at retail. As a result, its estimate is lower than some other set-top box shipment forecasts.No related content found.
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