Nets Celebrate Ratings Record A Trifle Early
By R. Thomas Umstead -- Multichannel News, 12/21/2003 7:00:00 PM
The calendar hasn't turned past 2003 yet, but cable networks already are wishing themselves happy New Year, after a second straight win over broadcast networks in the annual ratings.
Ad-supported cable networks figure to record a 50.3 primetime household viewership share in 2003, versus 44.6% for the seven broadcast networks, according to a Turner Research Group analysis of Nielsen Media Ratings data from Dec. 30, 2002 to Dec. 14, 2003.
That almost 6-point differential far exceeds the 1.9-point edge cable had in 2002, when it topped broadcast for the first time at 48.1 to 46.2.
Cable networks also are poised for the first time to win more fourth-quarter primetime viewers than the broadcasters, Turner Broadcasting System Inc. chief research officer Jack Wakshlag said.
While broadcast held a 1.1 share lead through Dec. 14, Wakshlag — based on last year's performance — believes cable will overtake the networks during the last two weeks of the year.
If so, cable would count three consecutive quarterly share triumphs in 2003.
"As far as this being a horse race, it's over," Wakshlag said.
Cable also posted viewership gains among all adult demos, including a 6.8% increase against the much-discussed and elusive male 18-to-34 audience, according to a Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau analysis of Nielsen data.
Broadcast networks experienced decreases in all demos, except women 18 to 34.
Lifetime Television senior vice president of research Tim Brooks said broadcasters were unable to build on momentum generated in June when the older medium, riding a number of reality shows, posted a greater share gain.
"It was a year that started out with the promise of broadcast networks fighting back by putting a lot of original programming on in the summer. But there was no second act," he said.
"When the new [television season] started, it began with a whimper because viewers were already flocking to cable and they weren't able to grab the ball back, because the fall season was disappointing by most accounts," Brooks added. "As a result, cable was able to widen its lead over the networks."
Despite cable's audience-share dominance, the industry still only garners 29% of ad dollars spent against primetime programming.
Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau president Sean Cunningham believes that discrepancy will shrink in 2004.
"I think cable is emerging as the better advertising product, so I am not concerned for 2004 with respect to seeing this as an accelerating year for closing down that gap," Cunningham said.
Turner Network Television projects to finish the year as the top-rated network in primetime with a 2.0 household mark, up 11% from last year, according to an ABC Cable Networks Group analysis of Nielsen data from the period Dec. 30, 2002 to Dec. 14, 2003.
Wakslag pointed to ongoing demand for off-network repeats of Law & Order and the ratings pull of National Basketball Association contests.
TNT will dethrone Lifetime Television, the ratings champion during 2001 and 2002. The women's-targeted service saw its year-to-year ratings drop 15% to a 1.7, tying for second place with Disney Channel (up 31%) and Nickelodeon (flat from last year).
Cartoon Network (flat), Fox News Channel (up 33%) and USA Network (down 6%) were next, with each notching a 1.6 average. ESPN (1.5, up 7%), TBS Superstation (1.4, even) and A&E Network and TLC (tied at a 1.1, both up 10%) should round out the top 10 when the final tallies are entered.
Perennial total-day household leader Nickelodeon extended its string to eight years running, earning a 1.5 average.
Cartoon Network, Disney Channel, Lifetime, and TNT are projected to finish in a tie for second with a 1.1 when measured on a 24-hour basis, according to ABC Cable. Nickelodeon officials said the 41% advantage will mark its biggest lead over the second-place finisher(s) in five years.
Individually, Sci Fi Channel is claiming it will finish the year with a record 1.0 primetime performance for 2003, up 11% from 2002. It also claims an 11% primetime increase among males 18 to 34.
Court TV will also set its own primetime ratings record with a 0.9, up 13% over 2002 — the fifth consecutive year of growth since its 1999 relaunch.
Also establishing new ratings marks were Scripps Inc. networks Home & Garden Television (0.8) and Food Network (0.6).
Other top gainers in primetime during year to date: CNN and MTV (up 11%, to a 1.0 rating); FX, buoyed by Nip/Tuck, (0.9, up 13%); The History Channel (0.9, 13%); AMC (0.8, 14%), Hallmark Channel (0.7, 40%), Animal Planet and SoapNet (0.6, 20%); MSNBC and VH1 (0.5, 25%). Bravo, Country Music Television and Travel Channel all rose 33%, to a 0.4.
Networks that didn't fare as well on a primetime household basis include: Discovery Channel (down 10% to a 0.9 rating); Lifetime Movie Network (off 14% to a 0.6); Game Show Network (down 20% to a 0.4); and CNBC and WE: Women's Entertainment (both off 33% to a 0.2).
TNT has been the primetime network of choice among adults 18 to 49 (1.12 million of those viewers) and 25 to 54 (1.19 million), while MTV is projected to finish first among adults 18 to 34 (503,000), according to the Turner analysis.
MTV officials point out that the music and youth-culture network will set the pace among its core 12-to-24 audience for 27 straight quarters and the 12th consecutive year overall, with 311,000 such viewers on average in 2003.
TNT also set delivery records on a total-day basis among adults 25 to 54 (656,000) and among 18 to 49 (631,000), while TBS smashed its own record for delivering adults 18 to 34 (297,000).
| Trending Positively | ||
|---|---|---|
| Save for a slip in 2000, cable's share of primetime audience has built over the years, while the measure for the seven broadcast networks has eroded. | ||
| Broadcast | Ad-Supported Cable | |
| Source: Turner Research Group analysis of Nielsen Media Research data. *Period reflects year-to-date performance, spanning the period Dec. 30, 2002 to Dec. 14, 2003. |
||
| 1999 | 53.1 | 41.8 |
| 2000 | 52.3 | 41.2 |
| 2001 | 48.2 | 45.0 |
| 2002 | 46.2 | 48.1 |
| 2003* | 44.6 | 50.3 |
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