Magna Predicts 9% Drop in Broadcast Ratings Due to Strike

Firm Predicts 5% Broadcast Decline in January

By Linda Moss -- Multichannel News, 11/15/2007 8:52:00 AM

If the TV writers strike drags on into the spring next year, viewing to the broadcast networks would decline on average 9% from January through May, according to estimates from the ad agency Magna Global.

The projection is from a report, “Writer’s Strike: Impact and Implications,” by Steve Sternberg, Magna’s executive vice president and director of audience analysis.

During the last strike by the Writers Guild of America, which lasted five months in 1988, there was a 9% drop in primetime viewing to the broadcast networks, according to Sternberg. 

He projected a similar impact with this year’s strike if it is lengthy.

“Our estimates are for adults 18-49, but the percentages will probably be similar for other demographic segments,” Sternberg wrote. “Compared to our current primetime estimates, we see an overall 5% broadcast decline in January and February, an 8% decline in March, 12% in April, and 13% in May. This averages to a 9% decline for January-May.”

But Sternberg believes viewers will flock back to broadcast TV once the strike ends.

“There’s been a lot of talk about how new shows have been struggling, this is the worst time for a strike, the You Tubes and My Spaces of the world will get a major boost, as will mobile devices, and that viewers will develop other habits and many will not return,” Sternberg wrote in his report.

“This is, of course, nonsense, and are mostly promulgated by those who have long been erroneously predicting the decline of traditional television,” he said.

Sternberg cited reports that have placed iTunes video downloads for the first half of 2007 at about 50 million, compared to roughly 1 billion music downloads.

“Video streaming is currently a minor occurrence, and is primarily driven by new television content,” Sternberg wrote. “The impact on TV viewing, even during a lengthy strike, will be negligible.”

According to his report, “Television viewing simply never declines — at least it hasn’t in the past 20 years. It may shift around a bit, and cable will certainly draw viewers from the broadcast networks, but people will still watch television. Just as overall television usage declines sharply every summer and then rebounds come fall, it will rebound once the writers strike ends.”

Sternberg said that there’s no question that DVD and video-game usage will increase as the writers strike continues, “but viewers will still be in front of the set and ready to watch television programming when regular broadcast schedules return.”