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FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
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| HOMES PASSED | HOMES PASSED NEW | SUBSCRIBERS ADDED | SUBSCRIBERS TOTAL | SUBSCRIBERS ADDED/HOMES PASSED NEW | SUBSCRIBERS TOTAL/HOMES PASSED TOTAL | |
| 3Q 2006 | 1,200,000 | 1,200,000 | 118,000 | 118,000 | 9.83% | 9.83% |
| 4Q 2006 | 2,400,000 | 1,200,000 | 89,000 | 207,000 | 7.42% | 8.63% |
| 1Q 2007 | 3,100,000 | 700,000 | 141,000 | 348,000 | 20.14% | 11.23% |
| 2Q 2007 | 3,900,000 | 800,000 | 167,000 | 515,000 | 20.88% | 13.21% |
| 3Q 2007 | 4,700,000 | 800,000 | 202,000 | 717,000 | 25.25% | 15.26% |
| 4Q 2007 | 5,900,000 | 1,200,000 | 226,000 | 943,000 | 18.83% | 15.98% |
In the first three-fourths of the year, FiOS TV could count on capturing the equivalent of 20 percent or more of all new households passed by the system, which provided an alternative to incumbent cable TV systems. In fact, that hit 25.25% of all new homes passed in the third quarter.
Then, abruptly, it fell back to 18.83% in the last quarter of the year.
Similarly, the acceptance of FiOS TV in all households passed by the most extensive fiber optic system in the marketplace slowed dramatically. In the first quarter of 2007, the percentage of all households that subscribed to FiOS TV out of all households that could subscribe to FiOS TV jumped 2.6%. So-called “penetration” of all households passed went from 8.63% to 11.23%. In each of the next two quarters, penetration jumped 2%, ending at 15.26%, at the last day of September 2007.
Then came the fourth quarter. Penetration went to …. 15.98%. A gain of seven-tenths of a percent. A far cry from the 2% or more of the previous three quarters. The prior rate must have had cable system operators in affected territories (like Cablevision or Comcast) exuding a few sweat beads.
Look at it this way: The growth in the fourth quarter now becomes the bottom line – the minimum --- growth rate for Verizon if it is to deliver on its promises to shareholders and potential investors that it is going to hit its stated goals on the rollout of FiOS TV.
Its oft-repeated goal – checked and confirmed again on Tuesday, Jan. 29 – is that Verizon will pass 18 million households and achieve somewhere between 20% and 25% penetration by the end of 2010 is now on the line.
If penetration had kept up at the rate of the first three quarters of 2007, it would have blown past that projection and actually achieved 32% penetration of households passed by the end of 2010. Phenomenal. Not realistic, you might be permitted to say.
But, let’s say the realistic growth in penetration is now five-tenths of a percent, every quarter. That has to be hit every quarter of 2008, 2009 and 2010 for Verizon to hit its stated goal.
Suddenly, a 2010 goal seems on the line, when the memory of the dropping of the new Waterford crystal ball above Times Square has not yet dimmed.
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Posted by Tom Steinert-Threlkeld on January 29, 2008 | Comments (7)
January 30, 2008
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
Sharon Cohen-Hagar, Verizon commented:
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
Sharon Cohen-Hagar, Verizon commented:
This is much ado about nothing. At the end of the year, we were marketing Verizon FiOS TV service to about 5.9 million homes, up 1.2 million from the end of the third quarter. Almost half of the increase in homes open for sale came in December. When you begin marketing to so many additional homes in such a short amount of time, it takes awhile to install new customers, which affects penetration. Despite that, we ended the year with 16 percent penetration across all markets, up from 15.2 percent penetration at the end of the third quarter. A more reasonable measure of marketing success will judge penetration after a product has been in the market for a period of time. That's the way we look at it, and FiOS continues to be a tremendous success.
January 30, 2008
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
ihatecomcast commented:
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
ihatecomcast commented:
tom u know nothing.
January 31, 2008
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
Tom Steinert-Threlkeld commented:
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
Tom Steinert-Threlkeld commented:
It's too early to "know" anything. In this case -- always -- only time will tell. Verizon is still on track to meet its stated FiOS TV goals. But, even if half the new homes came into reach in the last month, the quarter suggests that it may now be slow, steady growth that gets the company there, rather than a sprint.
January 31, 2008
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
DW commented:
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
DW commented:
FiOS is not consumer-friendly. Especially if you're not a technology guru. Customer service in territories where it runs up against a strong cable-tv operator is horrendous. It also suffers from confusing marketing. In many places Verizon can't yet offer its own TV. So they offer DirecTV. Painful, yet another bureaucracy to deal with. And the ugly gray dish. Contracts? Just like a Verizon Wireless contract, hard to get out of and 2 years long to boot. HD? Less than cable or the dish. Ballooning rates after the teaser starter rate is over? You bet. And many hidden taxes on telephone service.
February 1, 2008
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
Zootube commented:
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
Zootube commented:
It will be interesting how the #s end up with a combo of the current promo of a free 19 inch LCD HDTV for a triple play and the addition of HD Channels. The internet is far superior to what others can offer and it is about to be faster with the release of GIGE PON technology.
February 1, 2008
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
Templar commented:
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
Templar commented:
Even if they target 20% of the 18 million households i.e 3.6 million homes, they have 2.6 million homes to connect (as they passed 1 million recently) and 3 years (till 2010) to achieve it. 12 quarters more ... and it is very much possible.
February 8, 2008
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
FiOS Customer commented:
In response to: FiOS TV's Goal Line Stand
FiOS Customer commented:
Part of the problem is FiOS markets itself as a high tech company, but is well behind the competition in offering HDTV channels. It will be interesting to see if the growth rates rise in 2009 when they reach their stated 150 HD channel goal at the end of this year.
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