HD Growing Pains
November 20, 2006

This holiday shopping year had high expectations for technology vendors but uncertainty about computer upgrades -- with Windows Vista looming, HD set-top wars and digital rights management has put the breaks not only on PC sales, but it could put a damper on HD growth in the cable market, as well.

The digital-video-recorder wars have been on for some time. TiVo, longtime DVR leader, remains at the top of the heap, although it has only recently introduced a high-definition box, which works as a sidecar to a cable or satellite converter.Satellite has had integrated HD DVR technology for a bit longer but few DirecTV subscribers have been willing to foot the expensive upfront cost of this first-generation HD equipment.

Cable companies such as Full Channel have had the option to launch HD DVRs from Motorola, but at their own risk, since the hardware/software combination was less than perfect. Small cable operators have been waiting (not so) patiently for Motorola to improve the DCT-6412 HD DVR.Full Channel chose not to launch the 6412 HD DVR.Having had three 6412’s fail in my own home during testing, it seemed that the potential risks -- financial loss from truck rolls, tarnished consumer reputation from the headaches of troubleshooting the box -- outweighed the gains of being able to say, “We have an HD DVR, too!”

We decided to launch a standard-definition TiVo sidecar last year.It wasn’t high-definition, but the failure rate has proved to be far below that of the 6412.

Finally the summer of ’06 brought the good news of the Motorola DCT-6416, which promised to resolve the many pesky reliability issues of its predecessor. No sooner was it available to independent cable operators through the National Cable Television Cooperative, that it was announced to be obsolete -- doomed before it even left the shipping dock. An FCC ruling on competitive cable converters earlier this year promises to allow other vendors into the set-top converter market by forcing the current players (Motorola and Scientific Atlanta) to eliminate the integration of authorization circuitry within the box.

This is a great idea, but like growing pains, the “HD pains” from the transition have been sharp and unexpected. The FCC’s timeline essentially kills current technology before its replacement arrives in the marketplace, leaving operators and consumers with fewer options for high definition this holiday season.

I suppose we’ll wait (patiently) for the next generation of separable security set-tops, which will hopefully bring diversity to the HD set-top market, just in time for, hmmm … the Fourth of July shopping season?

Posted by on November 20, 2006 | Comments (6)