Linear TV's Dead and Other Cable Worries
If worrying were an Olympic event, cable could easily go for the gold. Cord-cutting! Over-the-top video! Google TV! (Gasp!)
Here’s my personal favorite of the anvils poised to drop on the industry’s collective head: “Linear television is dead.”
Yikes. Linear video remains the bread-and-butter for established cable (and satellite, and telco video) distributors. The cash cow. If it dies … perish the thought.
Does “linear is dead” mean that we won’t be able to leave the TV on in the background - without first creating a playlist of things to watch?
Does it mean that cable networks and the Big Four broadcast networks will stop programming in dayparts, shifting instead to some kind of 100% on-demand model?
Seems unlikely. When worried, ask more questions. A good one to start with is this: Are you equating “cord-cutting” with the “death of linear”? If so, that lessens the anxiety somewhat. TV didn’t kill radio, and online shopping didn’t kill “brick and mortar,” to name two relevant parallels.
The way to phrase the question in tech terms is this: Are you saying that linear television will shift, technically, to more of an on-demand framework - away from broadcast, and toward multicast and unicast?
That’s a more accurate - and less fatal - way to frame it. It’s not that networks will stop programming linearly, or that people will stop watching TV linearly. More, it reflects an underlying plumbing shift in how video bits are moving. From broadcast to multicast, then unicast. From “one to many” to “one to some” to “one to one.”
These days, linear video distribution is shifting away from satellite delivery onto national fiber backbones, called CDNs (Content Delivery Networks), which connect to headends. From there, it’ll move toward point-to-point delivery, to the screens in our lives that want video.
As someone who comes from a long line of very gifted worriers, I offer this: Try to remember what you used to worry about. For me, it was two-way plant. There wasn’t enough, in the early 1990s (understatement) - the industry’s annual construction forecasts always put the amount of two-way plant at 30% or less.
Now, hardly anything works without two-way.
Linear television isn’t going to die. The plumbing of it will change. And as it’s counterproductive to wring your hands while rolling up your sleeves, I’d suggest the latter as the safest course of action.
MrDVR commented:
I haven’t watched linear in years. Even if it’s something I want to watch live, I let my DVR record it and watch near-live so I can skip the commercials. The only programming worth watching linear is live events - sports and breaking news - and since everything is now breaking news on Fox and CNN even that’s pointless. Plus I’d rather watch the evening news on one of the big 3 nets where they have the time and insight to put the stories in perspective vs. the 24/7 news channels that get excited by every sneeze. And I worked for the 24/7 news networks for 20 years… Ouch.
Over the top is the future; I don;t want 500 channels of cable, I want just one channel that has what I want to watch right now. And there goes my income stream. Double ouch.
bobo007 commented:
The problem with linear Tv is that it is the fragmentation. I have premium generic hd home theater domains taht would help corporations consoladate the home entertainment worlds. hdhometheater.com and all major extensions see details at www.hdhometheater.com
cvt commented:
" Linear video remains the bread-and-butter for established cable (and satellite, and telco video) distributors. The cash cow. " While linear video may generate a large amount of revenue the actual profits from it are not nearly so hefty. Dig into those financial statements and look at how much of that "pure video" revenue is eaten up by programming costs. The real "bread & butter" is HSD, VOD, and VOIP - Video just gets them in the door.
Jim commented:
I think the death of linear TV certainly is "greatly exaggerated”. But, it also seems prudent to watch the generational shift in the percentage of linear TV that is consumed, the number of time shifted(DVR)program hours consumed, and the OTT click to play consumption trends. Linear TV is great for events ( sports, contests, awards shows etc). But do I really care when I watch a sitcom? One notable factor that might help linear TV is the “chat factor”. People seem to love to discuss programming via social networking connections, even during the programming. That will require synchronized viewing. Oops, we are back to linear TV…. In the end, I think that other than events, our demand for instant gratification will drive our consumption behavior for almost everything…
j commented:
I think there is plenty of value in continuing linear video even if all content is eventually available on demand. I have found that there are movies I own on DVD which I have never watched again after the initial viewing but I have watched these same movies many times when I happen to catch them on tv.
To me, putting a DVD in or watching a VOD show involves making some sort of time committment to watch the show which isn't really there as much when you just flip channels and find it on.
j commented:
I think there is plenty of value in continuing linear video even if all content is eventually available on demand. I have found that there are movies I own on DVD which I have never watched again after the initial viewing but I have watched these same movies many times when I happen to catch them on tv.
To me, putting a DVD in or watching a VOD show involves making some sort of time committment to watch the show which isn't really there as much when you just flip channels and find it on.
Marc commented:
I think there's a lot of confusion on these terms. "Linear" usually refers to "scheduled broadcast" as opposed to "on demand." "Live" vs. "delayed" broadcast is another matter, hopefully NBC learned lesson that many consumers don't want delay in sports events (ruins the surprise factor). Given ongoing limitations of cable and Internet (Hulu) VOD libraries, "linear lives," maybe even thrives, although there's the whole DVR issue of primetime and advertising...
Leslie E commented:
LOL Ben! Forgive me, I hang mostly in the engine rooms. :-)
Leslie E commented:
LOL Ben! Forgive me, I hang mostly in the engine rooms. :-)
Ben commented:
I love how you mention the Olympics at the beginning of a linear TV post when NBC doesn't like to broadcast them live. Oh the irony.