Gary Arlen's blog

What Are You Looking At?

Watch out for:

o Apple’s curved (not flat) panel TV set.

o “Quantum dot” (QD) screens that are not only as thin and flexible as paper but also deliver a higher-definition visual experience.

o 21:9 ultra-wide monitors with greater-than-ever bandwidth demands.

o And enough bandwidth to transmit these immense images.


These approaches to improved viewing should be on the minds of program developers and carriers, since they offer a glimpse of how we will (or may) be watching television in the coming decade. You might be able to see early iterations of the second and third products (QD and 21:9) at the Consumer Electronics Show next month, either on the exhibit floor or in private demo suites. But even if you can’t see them now, be prepared for a new way of looking at TV.

The potential Apple TV with a gently curving “iScreen” is, for now, a conceptualization by Ciccarese Design, an independent design company which admits it has no inside knowledge of Apple’s TV set plans. According to Silicon Valley reports, Ciccarese conceived its vision from a number of sources, including hints from Steve Jobs’s comments for Walter Isaacson’s biography of the recently deceased digital visionary. Jobs claimed he had cracked the code for new TVs: an integrated, wirelessly synched TV set. I’m assuming that the remote control will be a voice-activated extension of the Siri software for the new Apple iPhone 4S - hinted in the Isaacson book in a Jobs quote about “the simplest user interface you could imagine.”

All we know for sure (sort of) is that Apple will introduce its TV - in whatever shape - late next year or in early 2013. The curved screen, if that is indeed the product, will offer a bigger, more immersive visual palette - akin to the Cinerama screens of an earlier theater generation.

Meanwhile QD technology, in development at the University of Manchester (UK) for the past decade, appears ready for its debut. A flurry of tech stories in the past week about Nanoco Group PLC, the commercial venture spun out from the university, suggest that the company is ready to show off its products. TV makers including Sony, Sharp, Samsung and LG are believed to be developing QD displays, which use an alternative form of light emitting technology. QD tech is incorporated into Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) displays. The Quantum dots are both photoluminescent and electroluminescent, and their unique physical characteristics enable ultra-thin displays, lower power consumption (”light on demand”) and improved contrast. Supporters also say that QD technology enables OLED displays to be manufactured much more cheaply than exiting displays. And their flexibility is already prompting designers to think in terms of videoactive wallpaper, curtains and other big and small screen implementations.

Separately, conventional TV makers - including Vizio and Philips - have already demonstrated prototypes of the evolving 21:9 aspect ratio monitors - a broad expansion from today’s 16:9 widescreen flat panel TV sets. The Consumer Electronics Association is still working on an update for 21:9 as part of its CEA #861 standard, “A DTV Profile for Uncompressed High-Speed Digital Interfaces.”  Analysts already expect that the visual display 2560 x 1080 pixels is too big for the MPEG-2 coding; it would not fit into the standard broadcast 19 Mbps data stream. It’s also not yet clear whether this capacity-gobbling video format would clog up cable and fiber capacity when and if content creators begin creating videos to fill up the ultra-wide, lifelike screens.

Whatever the timetable and actual implementation of these next-generation displays, the very existence of these technologies remind us that appealing images are at the core of the video business. System architecture and creative production will continue to escalate the demand for better images. For example, the waning frenzy for 3D TV is not the end along this route. (I expect plenty of CES pronouncements about the success of 3D based on proclamation about the sale of millions of 3D sets in 2011). The real story may be that 3D as we know it today is merely a stepping stone toward a more holographic, immersive type of visual exhibit… the stuff of sci-fi movies. A more viable format will emerge during this decade, built on the imaging lessons that will be an outgrowth of today’s 3D, QD, ultra-wide screen and other display technologies.

Carriers - cable, satellite, telco, wireless and others - who will transmit those images better watch out now for the next look of TV - and its bandwidth demands.

Gary Arlen is president of Arlen Communications LLC in Bethesda, Md., and a long-time interactive TV enthusiast. Reach him at GArlen@ArlenCom.com  

One-Second Videos: Motion and Emotion

Sure, you’ll wince skeptically when I tell you about one-second videos.

“How can you tell a story in just one second?” you’ll ask. “What is it? The ultimate cave-in to the short-attention-span generation?”

Actually, these one-second videos are moving still pictures in both senses of the term “moving”: motion and emotion. Think of a baby’s smile, not just the snapshot but the moment when the lips and eyes move into shape. Think of a bird taking wing, the close-up ticking of watch gears, legs splashing down a water-slide, the sun breaking through trees, kids running two steps or a fountain pen touching paper as the first ink drop begins to create a message.

Those fountain pen and watch images - among the 60 videos in the one-minute “Beauty of a Second” compilation  - are especially significant. Montblanc, the luxury pen- and watchmaker, is the sponsor of the contest that is encouraging viewers to create ultra-short videos. It’s a good example of innovative branding in a congested marketing world; the competition offers both audience-engaging opportunities and a template for new advertising messages.

There have been other showcases of “micro-cinema” and cell-phone videos, but this one is particularly impressive with its blend of art and business. The user-generated videos (interspersed with commercial references) spur ideas for both linear and broadband segments that are especially appealing to audiences weaned on fast-cut visuals.

I looked at the 60-second compilation of videos, scored with appropriately simple new-age music, as a gallery: lots of good pictures, a few great, memorable ones - and if you don’t like something, a second later, you’ll see something else. The format holds promise as an interstitial visual compendium and also as a commercial format. For example, customers can be invited to show how they use a product, and their instant videos can be compiled into a demo reel. If the one-second visions are sufficiently compelling, viewers will return to catch the individual images - much as we do when flipping through a photo album and turning back to see a favorite picture.

Montblanc figured this out with its “Seize the Moment” contest, which is now soliciting one-second video submissions for the next round of its showcase competition. Renowned film director Wim Wenders describes the concept of the moving visual image  at the website, which offers more examples of how much we can see in a second.

If you’re feeling visually inspired, the deadline for the next round of entries is Dec. 13; you could win a Montblanc Nicolas Rieussec Chronograph and a trip to Berlin. Or you can just watch the early stages of a new form of creative expression. The contest’s website offers inspiring ideas, and if you don’t like it, well, it only took a moment.


Gary Arlen is president of Arlen Communications LLC in Bethesda, Md., and a long-time interactive TV enthusiast. Reach him at GArlen@ArlenCom.com

All-IP Ecosystem 5 to 10 Years Away -- Or Maybe 25

Santa Clara, Calif. — It’s always entertaining when experts - all vendors with varying agendas - vigorously disagree during a panel discussion at an industry conference.

Thus when a session on “The New Perspective on Multiscreen Service Management” turned to the topic of how soon “convergence of IP” [Internet Protocol] would dominate the multiscreen environment, the clash of wishful thinking and grim reality generated strikingly different expectations.

“Five to ten years,” proclaimed Julien Signès, president and CE of Envivio, adding that convergence already “is happening at the service level.”

“Twenty to 25 years,” was the immediate response from Tom Lattie, vice president of product management, production, playout and multiscreen at Harmonic Inc., although he waffled slightly by contending that there’s already a “converged IP system” - that is, a “hybrid” - in place. Lattie backed up his slow-process outlook by citing that the “number of “RF STBs” [radio frequency set-top boxes] is too enormous to replace” quickly. As further evidence, he pointed out that the cable industry is still investing in MPEG.

“We’re so focused on tomorrow that we forget most of our customers are 15 years behind us,” Lattie added.

That prompted Signès to acknowledge that his company’s customers are adding MPEG-2 to next generation STBs, but he still insisted that the infrastructure is moving to IP.

The repartee at the Media Innovations Summit underscored the panel’s initial dialog, which focused on the continuing “complexity” of the evolving multiscreen juggernaut. The panelists, also including Sam Blackman, chairman and CEO of Elemental, and John Gildred, founder and CTO of SyncTV, agreed that the biggest challenge to cross-platform delivery is the legal barrier. Some programs are licensed for access on linear networks, but not tablet or wireless devices - creating barriers for delivery and for customer understanding of why they cannot see what they want, where /when they want to - despite the “everywhere” promises.

“The business backend is still very complex,” Signès fretted.

Blackman countered: “If we can [convince] cable providers to [adopt] converged delivery, we’ll eliminate complexity.” He also argued that competition form over-the-top providers will encourage legacy operators “to make the change.”

The panel also acknowledged the “pressure on an unprotected network,” adding another challenge to the timeline for introducing a converged IP network to meet consumer interest and new competitive circumstances.

The entire conversation - as did other sessions at the conference - emphasized the importance of moving to the multiscreen opportunity quickly, given the fast uptick in consumer expectations. At the same time, the dispute about timing and technology was a reminder about the complex technical and business model issues that persist in this migration.

Gary Arlen is president of Arlen Communications LLC in Bethesda, Md., and a long-time interactive TV enthusiast. Reach him at GArlen@ArlenCom.com

Oh, Grow Up: Digital Oldsters Rock

When you head over the river, through the woods, past TSA screeners and/or tollbooth lines, and you finally get to Grandmother’s house/condo for the holidays, check out how she and gramps are plugged into digital media.

They (or maybe it’s you) are likely prodigious users of digital media, reflecting the widely ignored reality that age 55+ is the fastest-growing category of online and broadband users.

Specifically, a new Burst Media study shows that more than 26% of males and 19% of females over age 55 “took action” (such as making a purchase or visiting an advertisers’ website) after seeing an online ad. Those levels of engagement are far higher (almost triple in the case of males) than similar actions by the coveted 18-to-34 bracket, and about equal to or slightly higher than online response rates of 35-to-54-year-olds.

Another study by Forrester Research found that American consumers in the 56-to-66 set spent an average of $367 on online purchases during the summer quarter, more than double the average spending of the 18-to-22-year-old demographic.

While some marketing and media traditionalists still believe that older “digital immigrants” are set in their ways and buying patterns, these ongoing studies reinforce the reality that age doesn’t matter. Clearly there is a drop-off in online usage among the oldest old, but as “60 becomes the new 40,” opportunities are expanding for Baby Boomaudiences to embrace broadband services.

For example, the latest Horowitz and Associates Inc. broadband study recognizes that TV set viewing is still the favored format for older viewers (age 50+ in this case): 89% versus 75% for all viewers over age 18. But when asked whether they watch video on a computer or handheld device (smartphone or tablet), about 7% of the 50+ audience said “Yes,” they watch about equally on all platforms. In this nascent sector, their responses were not that different from the 13% of all ages who say they view videos at equivalent levels on TV and wired/wireless broadband.

At a recent seminar sponsored by “Get Older Adults onLine”, the group’s founder Debra Berlyn acknowledged that older Americans are still less likely to be online than the population at large. GOAL, which has financial backing from Comcast, Time Warner Cable and NCTA, along with telco and other funders, is among many groups encouraging seniors to expand their online usage in order to take advantage of the growing array of financial, health and other services that are being delivered via broadband.

Another group leading this march of seniors toward broadband engagement is Older Adult Technology Services, which is backed by the New York Academy of Medicine.

(Disclosure: I consult to AARP on digital media and telecom projects; all of the data above are from publicly available sources as indicated.)

So during your holiday visit to family — or their visits to you — find out how much broadband is part of their lives. The personal and family opportunities are obvious — photo and video sharing, grandparenting and more.

The business values are even greater, as e-commerce, entertainment and other digital companies are recognizing.

Gary Arlen is president of Arlen Communications LLC in Bethesda, Md., and a long-time interactive TV enthusiast. Reach him at GArlen@ArlenCom.com  

Sony Co-opetition?

Today’s dose of “things to keep you awake” comes in the form of Sony’s purported plan to compete with cable by creating a bundle of á là carte channels delivered via the Internet.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Sony has talked to NBCUniversal, Discovery Communications and News Corporation (presumably for Fox channels) to line up a roster of content that would be broadband-delivered to Sony PlayStation3 game consoles and other devices.

The idea is hardly new, and similar services already exist on a small scale, such as Sony’s own movie channel which is offered for a fee to authenticated customers of DirecTV and DishThe Journal cites unnamed sources who claim that Sony is focused on packaging “smaller niche channels” that cannot reach carriage agreements with MSOs. Again, that’s a road that Akimbo, NeuLion and many others have traveled, albeit those ventures were far less well-capitalized than Sony.

What makes it more interesting now is Sony’s multi-edged relationship with the cable industry. Start with the TV-manufacturing side of Sony, which announced nearly a year ago that it would deliver shows directly to Time Warner Cable customers who owned Sony ‘net-connected Bravia HDTV sets. That was one of the first authenticated “TV Everywhere” deals, of which we’ve heard precious little since. (At a CableNet exhibit during NCTA’s Cable Show in June, I heard plenty about cable-to-TV-set compatibility problems, but that’s another story.)

Sony is pushing its own content to the PS3’s broadband connector, not just movies from its Hollywood arm. There’s “Crackle”, a repository of old movies, TV shows, plus special-interest and original videos; Sony has interests in other online systems, too.

Equally significant, any new Sony over-the-top move is likely to surface at about the same time as Blockbuster ratchets up its streaming movie plans. The $10 per month “Blockbuster Movie Pass,” with limited availability since September, is ready to expand beyond customers of Dish, which acquired Blockbuster earlier this year. I’m looking for some major integration of Dish subsidiaries Blockbuster and Sling Media (itself a maker of Internet set-top equipment) to appear at January’s Consumer Electronics Show. Sony will also be on hand at CES, surely spotlighting its ‘net-connected TV sets and PS3.

Which brings us back to the role of Sony as a co-opetitor to the cable industry. When the co-opetition concept surfaced during the Internet bubble, there were great dreams of all ships rising as supply-chain collaborators sometimes became competitors. We never saw a good example of that arrangement.

I doubt that we’ll see one in this scenario. Nonetheless, it’s worth watching what Sony brings to the cord-cutting arena. With 18.1 million PS3 rug-top boxes in American homes, Sony might play a sizeable new role in a new “cord-swapping” process. But it would be all in the spirit of “friendly competition.”

Sure.

Gary Arlen is president of Arlen Communications LLC in Bethesda, Md., and a long-time interactive TV enthusiast. Reach him at GArlen@ArlenCom.com  

3D 'Glasses Consortium' Arises Right After 3D Indifference Poll

Talk about awkward timing. Three big TV-set makers and a 3D technology company unveiled plans this week to “collaborate on the development of a new technology standard for consumer 3D active glasses” - a development that might mean cheaper 3D glasses and ones that would work interchangeably with many of the 3D monitors coming to market.

Coincidentally, the announcement by Panasonic, Samsung, Sony and XPAND 3D, came out just days after NPD Group, the consumer research firm, said that its latest monthly tally of audience interest in 3D indicates a growing indifference to the technology. NPD found that viewers are now even less inclined to buy 3D equipment or watch 3D theatrical movies than in the company’s previous surveys.

The new TV-maker alliance, called the “Full HD 3D Glasses Initiative,” says it will focus on “critical issues” to “enable a better consumer experience across active 3D products.” In doing so, they may try to overcome the growing ennui about 3D TV that NPD identified. The alliance’s technology is intended to work with Bluetooth-enabled RF and IR 3D active glasses for TV sets, personal computers, projectors and 3D theaters. The first licenses for the new glasses will be issued next month, and the first “universal glasses” with the IR/RF protocols will be available next year.

TV makers have been negotiating a single standard for 3D viewing for at least two years. Ironically, in its announcement, the alliance uses NPD Group data about viewer preference for active 3D viewing compared to polarized and other (cheaper) 3D viewing technologies being offered by manufacturers. A Samsung executive cited an NPD study that identified the active 3D format as having a 96% share of the U.S. 3D TV market in the first half of this year.

A half-dozen other Japanese and Chinese video display makers are also supporting the protocols developed by the 3D Glasses alliance.

Meanwhile, NPD’s newest study found that 3D glasses remain the major barrier to purchasing 3D equipment, an ever greater hurdle than the price of 3D sets. Some 42% of consumers, up significantly from the previous poll, told NPD that price itself is still a major barrier to buying 3D equipment. NPD’s study indicated that 3D videogames, especially handheld no-glasses games, are the one sector where audiences are willing to buy into 3D products.

NPD’s Ross Rubin, executive director of industry analysis, indicated in his report that “lighter and less-expensive active-shutter glasses” are one of the factors that could drive 3D TV sales in the future. Hence, the new set-makers’ initiative could help attract new 3D buyers when the products arrive in stores next year.

Gary Arlen is president of Arlen Communications LLC in Bethesda, MD, and a long-time interactive TV enthusiast. Reach him at GArlen@ArlenCom.com

Where's the Music? Lollapalooza, Austin City Limits Fest Head To YouTube

Just a few years ago, Fuse TV was the “official broadcast partner” of Lollapalooza, the big late-summer Chicago music festival.

Next month, the event will be streamed by YouTube, which will also carry the Austin City Limits Music Festival in mid-September. C3 Presents, the company promoting both events, has made a deal with YouTube to carry two feeds from each festival. One “channel” will carry live performances and content, while the second will feature backstage interviews and previews of upcoming acts.

Altogether, about eight hours each day will be streamed.

The high-definition video live streams represent YouTube’s (and its parent Google’s) accelerating effort to present live performances of popular events - thus emphasizing their role as an alternative to cable/satellite pay-per-view programming.

There’s no word yet about which acts will be streamed, suggesting that rights negotiations are still underway with performers such as Cee Lo Green, Eminem, Coldplay, Foo Fighters for Lollapalooza and Kanye West, Coldplay, Stevie Wonder among others for Austin City Limits.

Video archives of the performances will remain available on YouTube for about a month after each festival. Those on-demand viewing offer far more flexibility than the “Rewind Week” highlights that Fuse ran after the 2006 Lollapalooza.

Dell and AMD, the computer and chip-maker respectively, will sponsor the video streaming for both events, each of which may attract tens of millions of online viewers for all or part of the festival acts. The 20th annual Lollapalooza runs August 5-7, while the 10th annual Austin City Limits runs Sept. 16-18.

During the week prior to each festival, to promote the shows, YouTube will run teaser videos, including new performances from the bands and special messages from the talent. Dana Vetter, YouTube’s music marketing programs manager, in a statement said that, the live streams give music lovers around the world an “unprecedented” opportunity to see their favorite acts, noting that the partnership with C3 lets “fans enjoy the music online the same as if they were in the crowd.”

That sounds like a step toward further such relationships, underscoring the competition that will evolve to pit online performances against cable networks’ PPV and VOD offerings.

Gary Arlen is president of Arlen Communications LLC in Bethesda, MD, and a long-time interactive TV enthusiast. Reach him at GArlen@ArlenCom.com

Getting Ready for the AllVid Smackdown

The AllVid Tech Company Alliance, a consortium of consumer electronics manufacturers and retailers, plus some other intriguing firms ranging from Sony, Mitsubishi and TiVo to Best Buy, The Shack (née Radio Shack), Nagravision and Google, wended its way through the FCC recently.

Among the tales Alliance representatives told to Commissioners Copps and McDowell and the Media Bureau staff were their interpretations of cable-centric technologies demonstrated at the Cable Show 2011 in Chicago last month.

“There is no indication that the isolated and proprietary implementations of standard techniques, as recently demonstrated, can or will lead to a market for devices that can receive programming and services from more than a single MVPD operator,” the AllVid group said in its ex parte meeting disclosure. The companies’ comments augur the tactics that manufacturers and retailers will use when the FCC finally gets around to dealing with the AllVid rulemaking.

“Unless the Commission proceeds with an AllVid rulemaking as intended in the National Broadband Plan, the markets for MVPD devices and for MVPD programming and services, will remain essentially in the same condition they were in when the Congress enacted Section 629 [of the 1996 Telecommunications Act],” the Alliance argued, sneering at the cable industry’s promise to develop set-top boxes for retail sale.

“With IP-based technologies available, it is anachronistic and unacceptable, as MVPDs move toward IP-based program distribution, for the common ‘fallback’ solution … to be HDMI,” according to the Alliance. Rather, it argues, “in an IP-based era” the common interface should link MVPD navigation through home networks that are “inherently two-way and interactive.”

The AllVid document, which emerged within days of NCTA’s gloat that nearly 30 million CableCard-equipped STBs are in the market sets the stage for the upcoming skirmish over video delivery. And it’s a reminder that TV Everywhere isn’t the only solution to portable video in the IP-based era.

For its part, the FCC seems unhurried in its consideration of AllVid, trying (according to my sources) to take a longer look at the issue in the context of larger video distribution objectives.


Gary Arlen is president of Arlen Communications LLC in Bethesda, MD, and a long-time interactive TV enthusiast. Reach him at GArlen@ArlenCom.com

Waffling about the Cord-Cutting Timetable

And for this week’s installment of the continuing saga of “Cord Cutting Forecasts,” we take a look at the entry from Knowledge Networks. The soothsayers there contend that 62% of American homes have TV sets that are not Internet-connected and that “most plan to stay that way.”

But what’s this? We dig a little deeper into the Knowledge Networks report and find that the current minority of ‘Net-connected TV watchers are not only younger, better-educated and higher income (characteristics never overlooked by advertisers), but that two-thirds of them confess that the visual quality of Internet video is equal to or better than conventional TV reception. Some 10% of them watch TV shows and 11% screen movies via the Web at least once a month. Among young viewers (13 to 31 years old), the share is 17%. Moreover, in the homes that can access ‘Net-video, 21% of viewers are “dedicated users.”

All that back-up data seems to suggest that the majority who are sticking with “regular” video may indeed shrink. Meanwhile, another forecast this week from Display Search projects that by 2015, 47% all flat panel TVs will include some form of Internet connectivity. The company’s “Quarterly TV Design and Features Report” pegs the number of such sets at 138 million units globally. That means in just four years, more than 500 million ‘Net-connected TV sets will be in homes around the world.

Maybe by then, more people will have figured out how to use that feature - and then the cord-cutting (or trimming) will be recognized as a more serious threat.

Gary Arlen is president of Arlen Communications LLC in Bethesda, MD, and a long-time interactive TV enthusiast. Reach him at GArlen@ArlenCom.com  

TV Set Makers Ramp Up Tech Pitches

July 4th weekend is typically not a big time for TV set sales. Other than Wimbledon, there is sparse programming that clatters for a new big screen in the home.

Hence the two full-page ads on the back pages of two Wall Street Journal sections on Thursday jumped out. They may be harbingers of a feature/function war that TV set manufacturers will wage during the coming season; they are also follow-ups to the product unveilings at the previous week’s “Consumer Electronics Week” and its line show (sales updates on the new products) in New York.

LG’s bold full-pager is the more striking of the two Journal ads, if only because of its in-your-face punch at Sony and Samsung. LG tells its rivals they “better stick to 2D,” citing its own “consumer perception study” in which “four out of 5 people chose LG Cinema 3D over Sony and Samsung.” On the website backing it up, there are details about how many viewers favored the LG set in a face-off with the other brands.

Such comparative ads are rare among the top tier of TV manufacturers, although LG has not been shy about its confrontational stance toward its fellow Korean competitor Samsung. Bringing Sony into the fray allows LG to put itself into the top rung of perceived “best” TV brands, although Samsung has been the category leader recently.

The bigger dilemma is why LG is pushing 3D right now, when market apathy is rampant about such capability. There’s still plenty of industry chatter about 3D, but it was noticeably toned down at the recent NCTA Cable Show and at consumer electronics events, compared to the 2010 buzz.

Separately, Sharp, in its full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal introduced “the largest LED LCD TV in America,” a 70-inch behemoth for “under $3,299.” Among the features singled out was its built-in Wi-Fi capacity, which includes “over a hundred apps.” < www.sharpusa.com/aquos > Early adopters or upgraders who want the nearly 6-foot (diagonal) screen - and have space for it - are into “big” rather than plentiful.

Yet the constant reminders about the availability of video apps is likely to distract viewers of the big new sets to click over to that new source of video - rather than tuning into the sports and movie channels for which they are paying.
Gary Arlen is president of Arlen Communications LLC in Bethesda, MD, and a long-time interactive TV enthusiast. Reach him at GArlen@ArlenCom.com

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