Todd Spangler's blog

TV: Still Social After All These Years

Are Facebook, Twitter and their ilk changing the nature of TV viewing — or are they just replicating what generations of boob-tubers have done for years?

A new report from Ericsson finds that 62% of TV viewers with broadband access use social media while watching television weekly, an 18-point increase from last year. The report is available to download here.

Surprising? Not really. Especially when you realize that 77% of TV viewers still socialize the old-fashioned way: by talking to other people in the same room. That’s also up from last year, according to the survey — and in fact, people are doing more things in general in front of the TV set. (Is this some kind of economic indicator?)

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Practically from its inception, television has been a hot topic of conversation.

There may not be as many televised cultural touchstones these days that wholly capture the world’s attention like, say, the 1969 moon landing. But this summer’s 2012 London Olympic Games on TV certainly lit up the socialsphere (though to be sure, in the U.S. some of it was bellyaching about NBC’s coverage), and this week’s Republican National Convention and Hurricane Isaac are providing prime television-fed social fodder.

So we’re using new tools to talk about TV — millions of us are. As of June 2012, Facebook had 955 million monthly active users worldwide while Twitter had more than 500 million registered accounts including at least 140 million in the U.S.

I think the full implications of social media on TV have yet to unfold. But my hunch is that even with the dynamic, rapid-fire water-cooler of social media, we’ll still basically discover and talk about television the way we always have. Probably with just a little bit more snark.

Look, we like what we like. I’m not gonna tune in to TLC’s flinch-inducing Here Comes Honey Boo Boo just because I’ve seen a bunch of tweets about it.

Other findings from the Ericsson ConsumerLab’s TV & Video Consumer Trend Report 2012: 66% of women use social services while watching TV, versus 58% of men. Twenty-five percent of consumers use social media to discuss TV while they are watching it.

The social TV results were based on responses from consumers in the U.S., China, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan and the U.K. That was a subset of Ericsson’s full online poll of 12,000 people in May 2012 in 12 countries.

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Programming Note: Get a read on the future of multiscreen TV at our two events next month — TV’s Cloud Power, Sept. 13 in New York City; and the Next TV Summit, Sept. 20 in San Francisco.

Broadband's One-Percenters

The top 1% heaviest broadband users consume about 20% of total bandwidth on wireline networks, a usage pattern that’s held true for the last several years, according to Cisco’s Visual Networking Index (VNI) study.

Meanwhile, the total amount of IP traffic is projected to keep growing like kudzu — mushrooming 300% from 2011 to 2016, Cisco predicts.

If you’re an Internet service provider, how do you prepare for this dramatic growth curve? AT&T had already picked its path, aimed at the one-percenters: The telco’s broadband subscribers get a set amount of data usage per month, then pay for whatever they use beyond that (although some AT&T customers have complained that they don’t have access to usage meters yet). Comcast is going down this road, too.

Use more, pay more: It’s pretty straightforward. The 1% of users who eat up most of the bandwidth should pay more than the 99%, or be given an economic incentive to adjust their usage. Right?

Wrong, says Netflix. The Internet-streaming service and others want the U.S. government to ensure the all-you-can-eat party continues.

Last month Netflix’s top lawyer, David Hyman, complained to lawmakers that ISPs’ usage limits are an effort to inhibit online video viewing because it’s competitive with their pay-TV services. That kind of argument has gotten the ear of the Department of Justice, which is investigating the potential antitrust implications of broadband caps.

Sure, it’s nice to not have to worry about usage. But is it fair to force everyone to pay the same flat fee?

To me, some dude who watches hundreds of movies over the Internet should be paying more than the average broadband customer. Comedian Mark Malkoff allegedly streamed 252 movies from Netflix in one month — and was feted at Netflix HQ, where he shared his eye-glazing binge-watching experience. My back-of-the-envelope math would put his viewing marathon easily at more than 400 GB. “My ISP hates me!” Malkoff joked to Netflix CEO Reed Hastings.

Generally, I think, ISPs don’t hate their customers. What they really want is a sustainable way to manage unprecedented Internet demand in the years ahead, while maintaining the flexibility to charge based on usage when it makes sense. Note that Time Warner Cable — stung by its stumble in usage-based pricing three years ago — is currently offering optional cap-and-surcharge plans in Texas as a carrot (with a $5-per-month discount) rather than as a stick.

What do you think? Add your comments below.

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Programming Note: Find out how operators and media companies are tapping into cloud-based technologies at TV’s Cloud Power, Thursday, July 19, at New York’s Roosevelt Hotel. Scheduled speakers include TiVo CEO Tom Rogers; IBM Global Business Services’ Bob Fox; PwC’s Gordon Castle; Verizon FiOS’s Maitreyi Krishnaswamy; and Current Analysis’ Ron Westfall.

Netflix Stock Still Down 73% From Its 52-Week High

Netflix’s stock climbed 13.4% on Thursday, after CEO Reed Hastings in a pre-Independence Day celebratory post congratulated his company for delivering more than 1 billion hours of video to subs in June.

“We’ll blow these records away” once Netflix debuts an exclusive season of Arrested Development and a remake of the BBC’s House of Cards, Hastings bragged in a Facebook post on July 3.

The CEO’s enthusiastic status update drove Netflix shares up, closing at $81.72 on Thursday.

But the stock is still well off its 52-week high. Down about 73%, in fact. A year ago, the stock was soaring above $300 per share, hitting a peak of $304.79 on July 13, 2011.

Netflix’s stock price still hasn’t recovered from the major hit it took after executives announced a decision to split the DVD and streaming-video plans, in what amounted to a price hike on most customers — erasing more than $10 billion in market value.

Last fall the stock fell to less than $70 per share after the company in October announced a net loss of 800,000 U.S. subscribers, before rebounding earlier in 2012 to close at $129.25 on Feb. 6. Shares tumbled again this April and bottomed out at $60.70 last month after Netflix said growth would slow in the second quarter of 2012.

Netflix is scheduled to report Q2 2012 results on July 24 after market close.

Here’s the one-year chart for NFLX’s closing prices:

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Programming Note: Find out how operators and media companies are tapping into cloud-based technologies at TV’s Cloud Power, Thursday, July 19, at New York’s Roosevelt Hotel. Scheduled speakers include IBM Global Business Services’ Bob Fox; PwC’s Gordon Castle; Maitreyi Krishnaswamy, Verizon’s director of consumer video services; and Current Analysis’ Ron Westfall.

Samsung Takes Smart TVs Into Microsoft's Cloud

Samsung Electronics will use Microsoft’s Windows Azure cloud-based service infrastructure to manage the delivery of apps and software to its Smart TVs worldwide, the companies announced Monday.

The CE maker sells Smart TVs and provides Internet-connected services in 120 countries — and plans to expand even further. Compared with the cost of expanding its in-house IT services, Samsung achieved a tenfold cost reduction by choosing to run that infrastructure in Microsoft’s cloud, according to the companies. Samsung also “observed greater speed of service in Asia, where it sees most of its Smart TV traffic,” they claimed.

In this context, you’re looking at a classic build-versus-buy scenario. According to Microsoft, other companies using Windows Azure include General Mills, LexisNexis, NASA and Television Broadcasts Ltd. (TVB), a Hong Kong-based TV broadcaster.

For Samsung, outsourcing cloud services — hosted at Microsoft’s data centers on Windows servers — made more sense: “Windows Azure gives Samsung the ability to focus on its business rather than having its technical team deal with problem-solving and troubleshooting issues,” said Bob Kelly, VP of Windows Azure at Microsoft.

But for others, owning the cloud is the better strategy. Netflix, for example, is shifting away from Level 3’s content delivery network services to a model where it hands off video traffic directly at Internet exchange points (see Netflix Rolls Its Own CDN).

Of course, there are risks with the cloud — any cloud, whether outsourced or internally operated. Amazon.com’s cloud-computing service, which powers part of Netflix’s service, suffered a major outage over the weekend after storms on the East Coast knocked out power to several data centers.

What about cable? In some sense, TV has always been delivered from “the cloud” (the headend), and providers like Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cox and Cablevision have been quickly ramping up their network infrastructures to deliver video services to any device.

Not without some controversy — witness the network-neutrality uproar over Comcast’s decision to offer unlimited VOD over its IP-based cloud to Xbox consoles, whereas the likes of Netflix are still counted toward usage limits (see Comcast To Shift From Broadband Caps To Usage-Based Pricing and Once Again, Here’s What Data-Usage Caps Are For).

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Programming Note: Find out how operators and media companies are tapping into cloud-based technologies at TV’s Cloud Power, Thursday, July 19, at New York’s Roosevelt Hotel. Scheduled speakers include IBM Global Business Services’ Bob Fox; PwC’s Gordon Castle; and Maitreyi Krishnaswamy, Verizon’s director of consumer video services.

Analyst: Fawaz's Arrival at Motorola Is 'Clear Signal' Google Plans to Sell Cable Unit

Why did Google decide to bring in Marwan Fawaz, former CTO of Charter Communications, to replace longtime Motorolan Dan Moloney? (See Moloney Out At Motorola, Fawaz To Take Reins At Home Unit.)

The tea leaves point to the obvious, according to Jeff Heynen, Infonetics Research’s directing analyst for broadband access and video: Google wants to get out of the set-top business.

“It’s a rather clear signal that Google is looking to sell the Home division,” Heynen wrote in an email to me. “Fawaz has the right background in cable technology and venture capital to help position the Home assets for the best possible return during a sale.”

From 2002 to 2006, Fawaz worked as an investment specialist and technology analyst for Vulcan Inc., Paul Allen’s investment company. While that doesn’t necessarily make him an M&A specialist, Fawaz does have some experience valuing technology assets.

Speculation that Google would spin off Motorola started the very day the $12.5 billion blockbuster deal was announced (see Does Google Actually Have a Plan for Motorola’s Cable Business?).

And, it’s worth noting, Motorola itself in 2009 was shopping around the Home division, according to the Wall Street Journal, with an asking price in the neighborhood of $4.5 billion (see Goodbye Moto?).

But at this point, is it a buyer’s or seller’s market for Motorola’s Home unit?

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Programming Note: Find out how operators and media companies are tapping into cloud-based technologies at TV’s Cloud Power, Thursday, July 19, at New York’s Roosevelt Hotel. Scheduled speakers include Bob Fox, head of IBM Global Business Services’ Telecom, Media and Entertainment practice; Maitreyi Krishnaswamy, Verizon’s director of consumer video services; and Gordon Castle, director in PwC’s Entertainment, Media and Communications advisory practice.

ThinkAnalytics Brings Its TV Recommendations to U.S. Shores

A small Scottish technology firm is about to make finding stuff to watch on TV smarter for some U.S. viewers.

Content-recommendation technology provider ThinkAnalytics, a 57-person company based in Glasgow, has struck deals with two major American MSOs as well as a small operator, according to chairman Eddie Young. He declined to identify the customers.

All told, ThinkAnalytics has deals with 20 operators worldwide representing more than 70 million subscribers, including BskyB, Virgin Media, ITV, Telenet and Unitymedia.

When the U.S. operators go live, they will cover 15%-20% of the TV viewers in the States, Young said. “We expect the U.S. to come on strong,” he said.

Unlike some competitors, ThinkAnalytics provides content recommendations across VOD and linear TV listings: “Just VOD is simpler to do. Live recommendations across hundreds of channels across an EPG that changes every 15 minutes — that’s more challenging,” Young said.

Peter Docherty, ThinkAnalytics’ founder and CTO, says the company’s recommendation engine crunches data from a variety of sources, including subscriber ratings and selections, set-tops, metadata, time of day or week, and the state of content that is currently available.

The results can be impressive, if the stats from ThinkAnalytics are to be believed: In some cases customers receiving recommendations purchased up to 60% more than average.

At the same time, Docherty said, “It’s certainly possible to really annoy customers” with recommendations. For example, an operator should avoid recommending content that isn’t available in the customer’s programming package: “They just see that as an ad to get them to upgrade their TV service.”

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Programming Note: Find out how operators and media companies are tapping into cloud-based technologies at TV’s Cloud Power, Thursday, July 19, at New York’s Roosevelt Hotel. Scheduled speakers include Bob Fox, head of IBM Global Business Services’ Telecom, Media and Entertainment practice; Maitreyi Krishnaswamy, Verizon’s director of consumer video services; and Gordon Castle, director in PwC’s Entertainment, Media and Communications advisory practice.

A La Carte: Who Would Survive?

If the government mandated that TV channels be sold individually, only five to 10 networks would remain economically viable, according to an analysis by Needham & Co. (see Pay-TV A La Carte Could Put 1 Million Jobs At Risk: Analysts).

But which ones would be likely to live on?

To gauge which networks might survive in an a la carte world, Needham surveyed 500 consumers and asked them to list “which TV channels you must have available online for you to turn off your TV subscription.”

Here are the results — with the broadcast networks taking the top spots, followed by ESPN, Discovery, History and HBO:

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Source: Needham & Co., “The Future of TV: The Invisible Hand,” June 2012

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Aereo's Patent Play

What’s the real endgame for Aereo? It’s not completely clear, but the startup is definitely placing a bet on patents.

Aereo, the company formerly known as Bamboom Labs whose backers include IAC’s Barry Diller, this spring launched an Internet-based live TV and DVR service in New York City that delivers about two dozen broadcast channels — and was promptly sued by major broadcasters (see Public Knowledge, EFF File Brief Supporting Aereo, Aereo Wait-Lists New Yorkers On Internet TV Service and ‘Aereo’ To Test Copyright Law With Internet-Streaming TV Service).

Aereo argues that its dime-sized individual antennas, although mounted in a massive rooftop array far away from any actual subscriber, represent fair use. The broadcast companies say a service delivered via an operator-controlled antenna is “community antenna television” by any other name, and thus Aereo is subject to retransmission-consent regulations.

Could a broadcast-only over-the-top video service become a huge business? Maybe, especially with zero content costs.

But Aereo’s consumer offering may be just a sideline for the real business model: potentially licensing patents, should the startup prevail with its “fair use” argument in court.

In November 2011, Aereo filed for at least four U.S. patents: Antenna System with Individually Addressable Elements in Dense Array; System and Method for Providing Network Access to Individually Recorded Content; Method and System for Processing Antenna Feeds Using Separate Processing Pipelines and System and Method for Providing Network Access to Antenna Feeds.

If Aereo’s approach is deemed legal, and if its patent applications are OK’d, then the company could be in a position to license its intellectual property to cable and satellite TV operators looking to establish their own “dense arrays” of antennas.

Note that this strategy, while time-consuming and expensive, has worked for TiVo. TiVo reached a $500 million-plus patent-litigation settlement with Dish/EchoStar last year as well as a deal with AT&T worth up to $300 million, and the DVR maker is currently suing Time Warner Cable, Verizon, Motorola and Cisco.

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Follow me on Twitter: @xpangler

'When SpongeBob Gets Upset, He Calls Stephen Colbert'

If you don’t have a dog in the fight, carriage feuds can provide high-quality entertainment.

For the current DirecTV-Viacom standoff, in which 17 networks winked off the satellite service last night at midnight, the media company crafted a deft parody of the DBS operator’s current “get rid of cable” ad campaign featuring its own cast of characters (see Viacom Nets Pulled Off DirecTV).

Viacom’s anti-DirecTV video clip even includes a pitch-perfect deadpan narrator:

“When DirecTV drops your favorite channels, SpongeBob gets upset. When SpongeBob gets upset, he calls Stephen Colbert. When he calls Stephen Colbert, Colbert rallies the troops. When Colbert rallies the troops, Elka [Betty White in TV Land’s Hot in Cleveland] calls for alien backup. And when Elka calls for alien backup, Cartman gets a satellite lodged up his ass. Don’t let Cartman get a satellite lodged up his ass. Call DirecTV now at 800-531-5000 and demand that DirecTV keeps your favorite channels.”

Funny. But of course, Viacom is in the business of creating entertainment.

It figures that the agitprop on the operator side is, by comparison, a real snoozer. DirecTV’s site (directvpromise.com) features CEO Mike White sitting on a desk in a wood-paneled office, placidly telling the viewer that “unfortunately Viacom has decided to take their channels away from our customers. It’s a temporary and regrettable tactic to try to force you to pay substantially more for their networks — even the ones you don’t watch or care about.”

DirecTV claims on its website that switching to cable “isn’t the answer” since “switching providers only makes it easier for programmers to increase your monthly bill no matter who provides your TV service.”

A valid point — but it’s still amusing to see DirecTV hoist by its own “get rid of cable” petard.

As BTIG Research’s Rich Greenfield tweeted, “No @AMC_TV on @dish, no @Viacom nets on @directv - cable industry appears to be the big winner today!”

Here’s the Viacom parody:

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Programming Note: Find out how operators and media companies are tapping into cloud-based technologies at TV’s Cloud Power, Thursday, July 19, at New York’s Roosevelt Hotel. Scheduled speakers include TiVo CEO Tom Rogers; IBM Global Business Services’ Bob Fox; PwC’s Gordon Castle; Verizon FiOS’s Maitreyi Krishnaswamy; and Current Analysis’ Ron Westfall.

What the Judge in the Aereo Case Didn't Rule On

While Aereo is still in business for now after a federal judge declined to grant broadcasters’ request to shut it down, her decision was narrow — and specifically excluded several important questions pertaining to Aereo’s potential liability for copyright infringement (see Some Cable Ops Rooting For Aereo In Clash With Broadcasters and Judge Denies Request To Shut Down Aereo).

Judge Alison Nathan of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York based her decision on the precedent set by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals’ Cablevision Remote Storage DVR ruling: “The overall factual similarity of Aereo’s service to Cablevision… suggests that Aereo’s service falls within the core of what [the] Cablevision [decision] held lawful.”

Aereo micro-antennaEssentially, she ruled, just as Cablevision’s RS-DVR dedicates disk storage for each individual subscriber — which under the Second Circuit’s decision means it’s not a public performance — Aereo’s individual antennas process individual program streams for individual users. “As in Cablevision, the functionality of Aereo’s system from the user’s perspective substantially mirrors that available using devices such as a DVR or Slingbox, which allow users to access free, over-the-air broadcast television on mobile Internet devices of their choosing,” the judge opined.

However, Judge Nathan discussed several points that her ruling did not weigh in on — and noted that “the Court’s holding that Plaintiffs have not demonstrated a likelihood of success is limited.”

“First, the Court need not, and does not, accept Aereo’s position that the creation of any fixed copy from which a transmission is made always defeats a claim for a violation of the public performance right,” Judge Nathan wrote. “This position would eviscerate the transmit clause given the ease of making reproductions before transmitting digital data, and [the] Cablevision [RS-DVR decision] does not require such a far sweep.”

Neither did the court “need to resolve Aereo’s argument that their antennas, standing alone, defeat Plaintiffs’ claim that Aereo engages in a public performance. … There may be cases in which copies are purely facilitory, such as true buffer copies or copies that serve no function whatsoever other than to pass along a clearly identifiable ‘master’ copy from which the transmission is made. These facts, however, are not before the Court today.”

Finally, Judge Nathan wrote, “Aereo has argued that it cannot be held liable for copyright infringement because it does not engage in ‘volitional conduct’ sufficient to impose such liability, contending that it is Aereo’s users, rather than Aereo itself, who direct the operation of Aereo’s system.” But the court “need not reach the issue of whether Aereo escapes liability because it is ‘the consumer, not Aereo, who makes the transmissions that Plaintiffs complain of.’”

Those issues may arise on appeal; the broadcasters in the case on Thursday formally filed an appeal with the Second Circuit.

The judge’s reliance on the RS-DVR decision in the Aereo ruling was specious, according to Lee Spieckerman, CEO of SpieckermanMedia, a Dallas-based strategic communications consulting firm and cable TV network company.

“Unbelievably, the obvious difference between Cablevision and Aereo escaped Judge Nathan: Cablevision has retransmission licensing agreements with every TV station on its system. So Cablevision subscribers can only use the ‘network DVR’ to record and play back content from TV stations with which Cablevision has a contract,” Spieckerman wrote in a blog.

But Judge Nathan said she was required to adhere to the Second Circuit’s RS-DVR decision, even though the broadcasters “raise[d] the specter of congressional intervention should this Court find that Aereo’s system is lawful” arguing that Congress meant for “the transmit clause be construed broadly.”

“[T]o the extent that a court concludes that the Copyright Act does not cover an activity, it is Congress’s prerogative to step in if it ‘view[s] this result as an “injustice,”‘” she wrote.

The full ruling denying the broadcasters’ preliminary injunction motion is available here.

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