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It Ain’t Over for Live TV Sports

1/09/2017 8:00 AM Eastern

ESPN on Monday (Jan. 9) will televise the College Football Playoff National Championship game between the Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide amid questions regarding the continued value of live sports programming on linear TV.

 

The ratings gravy train that sports networks and the TV industry in general have enjoyed over the years may soon come to an end, MoffettNathanson senior research analyst Michael Nathanson warned in a recent report. Given the ratings falloff for 2016 regular season NFL games, as well as silver-medal level ratings for the Summer Olympics — and the potential of digital companies such as Facebook and Twitter vying for sports properties and driving up rights fees — TV sports is heading into its future with two strikes already against it, Nathanson argued.

 

In addition, a recent Thuuz Sports survey reported that 84.3% of pay TV subs with DVRs used them to record sports. The results cut into the cable-industry narrative that live sports programming is “DVR-proof,” so the sports-heavy traditional cable bundle is invaluable to fans.

 

The fact is, some “skinny bundle” offerings are drawing subscribers without a robust lineup of national and regional sports networks, including ESPN.

 

The live TV sports category undoubtedly faces some challenges, but it’s still very much game on, at least in terms of its huge appeal and value to viewers and distributors. When the ratings come out for Clemson-Alabama, the game will most likely secure the top spot as the most watched show on cable for 2017, beating out Nielsen live-plus-7 ratings for the more than 400 scripted series to air this year. Last year’s CFP title game garnered a cable-best 25 million viewers, and expectations are that this year’s rematch will match or surpass that number.

 

ESPN’s combined 36.6 million viewers for its two CFP semifinal games on New Year’s Eve topped the disappointing 34.1 million viewers the network garnered last year.

 

This year is just getting started. But with live telecasts of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, NBA games, NHL and MLB playoff contests, soccer, Ultimate Fighting Championship and boxing events and, yes, Monday and Thursday night NFL games on tap for 2017, it’s not too early to predict that live sports programming will continue to score big audiences and drive valuable appeal for distributor packages offering such programming.

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