As consumers shift to new ways of accessing video programming, the number of traditional multichannel video subscribers will continue to fall, from more than 100 million in 2014 to 59.6 million in 2024, per Magna projections. Factoring in virtual multichannel video programming distributors (vMVPDs), the decline will be less steep, from 95.9 million in 2019 to 87.1 million in 2024, when vMVPDs like Sling TV will count about 27.5 million subs.
PwC predicts TV subscription revenue, which hit a peak of $101.1 billion in 2015, will slide to $88.5 billion by 2020 and slump to $81.3 billion by 2023. But multichannel advertising will hold fairly steady and the high-margin fixed broadband internet access business will remain healthy, growing from $60.1 billion in 2019 to $67.3 billion in 2023.
Linear TV advertisers will continue to decline, dropping to $48.6 billion by 2024, according to Magna, but total digital video advertising will continue to increase rapidly, growing from $15.8 billion in 290 to $25.5 billion in 2024.
Electronic delivery of home video content continues to grow, hitting $19.5 billion in 2023 for rentals and $5.7 billion for the sell-through sector, according to PwC. Meanwhile, the cost of media rights for sports, which remains among the most popular content on traditional live TV, will swell to $25.3 billion in North America by 2023, up from $20.9 billion in 2019.
Subscription VOD revenues will skyrocket to $17.8 billion by 2023, while total revenues from over-the-top sales and subscriptions will hit $23.7 billion, according to PwC. The consultancy also predicts gaming and eSports will be a $31.1 billion business by 2023.
As digital video advertising increases to $25.5 billion in 2024, Magna estimates the biggest share ($17.4 billion in 2024) will be captured by short-form video on platforms like YouTube. But long-form, authenticated streaming video on platforms like Hulu will jump to $4.6 billion, the virtual MVPDs will pull in $484 million and advertising on Roku and smart TVs will top $1 billion.
Watching live TV on broadcast or cable remains the most popular option for baby boomers and Gen Xers, but 49% of millennials and 67% of plurals* report that streaming video is their most popular platform, according to survey data from Magid.
African-Americans are more likely to have a multichannel subscription than the general population, and they also have higher rates of subscribing to virtual MVPDs and SVOD services.
In 2011, less than 2% of all pay TV subs told Magid researchers they planned to get rid of their video service. Today, that figure stands at a record 8.9%. But as consumers embrace cord-cutting and OTT services, 42% of consumers complain that managing subscriptions is a problem and 43% say they churn out of SVOD services in less than six months, Magid reports.