That represents $2.5 billion in lost value, the firm estimated: If “power-user households” could be migrated from P2P to legal video services, content providers and distributors would generate $1.4 billion in subscription revenue and $1.1 billion in ad revenue. (Disclosure: In-Stat is owned by Reed Business Information, which publishes Multichannel News.)
Now consider “TV Everywhere” as part of this equation.
The concept of making long-form TV content available online as an extension to a monthly cable subscription isn’t primarily aimed at the problem of piracy. But in the context of all the “free” video available on the Net — legitimate or not — TV Everywhere has multiple benefits, proponents argue:
1. Consumers get access to cable content and movies for free if they’ve already paid for it on TV, which would inhibit the urge to find that video via pirated sources;
2. Distributors like Comcast can offer incentives for customers to keep paying for cable TV and broadband;
3. Standard cable networks get potentially greater reach by counting those authenticated views as part of Nielsen’s C3 ratings (and unlike DVRs, they’d be able to force the ads to play); and
4. Premium networks like Starz and HBO can deliver a bonus service to their subscribers, reinforcing their paid-content models.
Whether these theories play out in reality will come down to execution: how easy these services will be to use, the quality of the video and the depth of the content lineup — stuff marketing types put under the rubric of “customer experience.”
Of course, TV Everywhere services like Comcast’s On-Demand Online aren’t really free. Some bloggers like GigaOm’s Om Malik have grumbled that tying cable TV subscriptions to a walled-garden Web video service amounts to perpetuating an entertainment “cabal.”
There’s a school of thought that the Internet drives the retail price of digital content to zero (see Chris Anderson’s “Free! Why $0.00 Is the Future of Business”). If, however, you believe people will continue to put a monetary value on content that is packaged correctly — not merely steal it or expect it to be freely available in exchange for a few small ads — TV Everywhere looks like the best option for the pay-TV industry to keep its model afloat.