Forecasting the trajectory of linear pay TV’s erosion, Parks Associates identifies 10% of broadband users as “likely cord-cutters.”
Half of that group, the research company said, will probably ditch linear cable, satellite or telco TV service in the next 12 months.
Park's survey included 5,006 U.S. broadband users.
According to MoffettNathanson, the annual pace of decline of the U.S. pay TV ecosystem is now 4.8%, the worst mark ever. The pay TV industry lost around 1.4 million customers in the first quarter.
The group ditching video services is still somewhat young and cutting-edge in terms of consumption habits.
"Many are satisfied with their current provider overall, but these subscribers are aware of the other options available to them and could become actual cord-cutters if their current service does not continually meet their needs,” Brett Sappington, senior research director and principal analyst for Parks Associates, said in a statement.
The group likely to flee the eco system next, according to Parks, are somewhat heavy mobile users — they watched six hours of videos on their phone a week, compared to 2.5 hours among all U.S. broadband households.
"Potential broadband cord-cutters rely on their mobile devices for entertainment," Sappington said. "They are significantly more likely to watch live video content via mobile, including live TV broadcasts and live-streaming, averaging an hour more per week each compared to average broadband households. As 5G mobile and 10G fixed broadband services start to deploy, the substantial performance improvements will be attractive to this segment of subscribers, which will drive many providers to match these offerings in order to achieve parity in competition and messaging."