Ad Recovery Continues: Forecasts


Ad spending in major U.S. media will continue to grow in 2003, according to separate forecasts released Monday by Universal McCann, Zenith Optimedia and Jack Myers Report.

In publishing its latest projections for 2003 and 2004 in its Monday daily-fax edition, Jack Myers Report forecast that ad spending across 12 major media categories will grow 2.8 percent next year and 4.1 percent in 2004.

Coming off robust upfront and scatter markets, the broadcast-TV networks' ad sales next year should grow 5 percent to nearly $16.8 billion and spot TV by 3 percent to $21 billion, according to Myers, while cable networks should jump 8 percent to $13.5 billion and local/regional spot cable 15 percent to $4.7 billion.

One key reason behind advertisers' increased ad budgets, Myers said, is that "marketers are now very reluctant to decrease ad-spending levels for fear of losing market share."

Meanwhile, the McCann and Zenith projections were announced during the morning session of UBS Warburg LLC's annual "Media Week Conference" in Manhattan.

Senior vice president and director of forecasting Robert Coen of Interpublic Group of Cos.' Universal McCann told his UBS audience U.S. ad spending next year will show a 5 percent uptick to $249.3 billion, with national media gaining 5.3 percent and local media 4.5 percent.

He attributed that ad recovery to more major marketers increasing their ad budgets and putting delayed new-product launches back on their schedules and, on the local front, to an improvement in classified advertising.

Zenith Optimedia CEO John Perriss, taking a more global approach, said worldwide ad spending will grow $9 billion to nearly $320.7 billion next year, with U.S. TV ad spending "setting the pace." In the United States alone, he said, ad spending will increase $2.6 billion to just over $146 billion.

In 2004, U.S. ad expenditures will soar even higher, up $5.3 billion to almost $152.4 billion, according to Zenith Optimedia.

U.S. advertising enjoyed "a banner year" in 2002, with Zenith Optimedia pointing in particular to $1 billion behind congressional-election campaigns alone.