New York -- In its latest ad-spending forecast, The Myers
Group LLC predicted another banner year for network cable next year.
But the crystal ball also showed an overall media slump in
2001, as a letdown after the convergence of the Olympic Games, Campaign 2000 and
From its survey of major national advertisers, Myers
concluded that basic-cable networks in 2000 will enjoy "growth rates that close the
cost-per-thousand [CPM] gap between cable and broadcast" for the second straight
Facing cable's projected 24 percent revenue uptick
next year, versus 20 percent in 1999, Myers said, basic networks will adopt "more
aggressive pricing strategies" in 2000.
Just as the Olympics, politicking and millennium fervor
will bolster ad spending, Myers forecast a spending lull in 2001, with
"post-Olympic/post-election syndrome, plus post-millennium reality," leading to
"a mini-recession" -- at least as far as the media business is concerned. Cable
networks will fare better than other categories, though, with a 12 percent projected rise
Looking at various categories of consumers in its survey of
major advertisers, Myers said its survey showed that marketers will continue increased
spending next year to target baby boomers (aged 35 to 54), young adults (18 to 34) and the
burgeoning Hispanic market.
But fewer advertisers expected to increase media spending
in 2000 to target two other rising segments -- seniors (55 and older) and Asians -- Myers
In addition, Myers said, a relatively small percentage of
national advertisers plan to boost their support appreciably to reach the much-heralded
family audience. Nor will there be major spending growth to zero in on kids and teens --
at least beyond those sectors' core accounts.
Meanwhile, Internet-ad volume "will approach national
broadcast-TV-advertising revenue in 2005, with the potential to pass [TV] by 2007,"
Indeed, the company said, online advertising should amass
$32.5 billion in sales in 2005, making it "the third-largest medium, behind only
newspapers and national broadcast television." National broadcast encompasses
network, syndication and national spot TV.
Myers -- which claimed that its past annual ad-spending
forecasts have been highly accurate -- indicated that its online forecasts are the most
In 2003, for instance, it foresees ad revenues of $16.6
billion, versus $12.6 billion by Forrester Research Inc. and $11.5 billion by Jupiter