In a new report, analyst Todd Juenger of Sanford C. Bernstein, says the big third quarter drop in C3 ratings for ad-supported TV is largely the fault of subscription video on demand players like Netflix and Amazon. And that the erosion is likely to increase.
Checking data from both Nielsen and Rentrak, Juenger believes the decline is real and not just a measurement error.
"We don't believe people stopped watching stuff. We believe they are watching it in different ways. We examine all the evidence at hand and come to a strong conclusion that SVOD is primarily to blame," he says. "It seems SVOD is no longer incremental, it has become cannibalistic (especially in the summer, when linear TV is at its weakest)."
"Viewers like SVOD because it offers programming on demand, without advertising and offers a pleasing interface and helpful recommendations," Juenger says.
"Hence, we don't think those viewers are coming back. The trend is more likely to accelerate than decline," says Juenger, who predicts another 4% decline in linear TV because of increased viewing of Netflix alone.
Read the full story at B&C.