If AT&T makes good on its recent suggestion that it will have 50% U.S. market penetration for fiber-to-the-home services by 2023, it could poach around 1 million customers each from both Comcast and Charter, and another 200,000 from Altice USA.
This is the conclusion put forth in a report this morning by equity research company Cowen, which suggested that such a hit could also impact Comcast’s earnings before taxes, interest and depreciation (EBITDA) by around $1.1 billion. Charter would take an $885 million EBITDA hit, while Altice USA would be down $162 million under the model.
AT&T has deployed FTTH to around 3 million homes in each of the past two years, and company management recently suggested it could reach 50% market penetration in three years.
Of course, Cowen’s dire prediction entails there being no response by the cable industry.
Cable, Cowen noted, has a “solid track record” vs. fiber overbuilds. There will also be coming speed upgrades driven by new DOCSIS technologies; and an improved focus on the customer experience and in-home IoT.
“As we keep a watchful eye on broadband trends through the year, we remain confident that cable will manage the AT&T fiber pressure,” the firm said in its report.