Ad forecaster BIA/Kelsey predicts that local media revenue will grow 1.6% to $139.3 billion by 2015, fueled by strong growth in the online/digital segment.
In its new U.S. Local Media Forecast 2015, BIA/Kelsey estimates that online/digital will account for about 25.2% of total local media revenue in 2015, rising 13.1% from $31 billion this year to $35 million in 2015. According to BIA/Kelsey, mobile local and social local categories will drive growth in the online/digital segment, with mobile up 53% to $6.6 billion from $4.3 billion in 2014; local social media revenue up 44% to $3.6 billion from $2.5 billion in 2014; and local search revenue up 1.4% to $7.2 billion in 2015;. Rounding out the sector, local display revenues will grow from $4.3 billion in 2014 to $4.9 billion in 2015; and local online video revenues will grow from $2.3 billion in 2014 to $3.0 billion in 2015.
"We expect the pace of growth in the overall local advertising marketplace to moderate through 2019, resulting in a three percent compound annual growth rate," said Mark Fratrik, chief economist, BIA/Kelsey in a statement. "Growth in online/digital advertising revenues will remain strong, with a 12.2 percent CAGR through 2019, compared with essentially flat revenues for traditional advertising (-0.5 percent CAGR) during the same period."