Carmel Predicts DBS Growth

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Direct-broadcast satellite penetration will grow to 30.1 million homes, or 27
percent of the U.S. population, according to a new study released by The Carmel
Group.

While DBS penetration currently stands at 19 percent, Carmel predicted that
growth of another 11 million homes will produce DBS-industry revenue of $21.6
billion by 2008. DBS interactive-TV subscribers will grow at a 38 percent
compound annual rate, the study predicted, producing 21.9 million homes by 2006.
The comparable cable figure, Carmel predicted, will be 29.1 million homes.

The report also predicted that DBS will generate $2 billion in revenue from
4.4 million satellite-broadband subscribers. DBS currently holds the advantage
in average revenue per subscriber -- $54 per month versus $48 for
cable.

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