Universal McCann senior vice president and director of forecasting Robert
Coen, who updated his ad-spending estimates for 2003 Tuesday, forecast that
total national ad spending will rise 5.2% to $153.1 billion, with network cable
up 10% to $13.28 billion and the "Big Four" broadcast networks up 4% to $15.6
Local ad expenditures should grow 4.6% to $94.66 billion, bringing total
(national and local) ad volume to $247.73 billion, up 4.6%, he added. That comes
in at slightly under Coen's initial 2003 forecast of 5%, made in December.
Coen noted that he lumped local cable and out-of-home under "other local
media," which, he projected, will rise 5.6% to $15.48 billion this year.
On the national front, Coen felt that the strong upfront should mean "an
upturn in ad spending in the second half of 2003 [that will] offset much of the
first-half sluggishness." He also anticipated that the upfront commitments
should be "pretty solid," at least through the fourth quarter of 2003.
Spot TV will dip 1% to $10.81 billion, he felt, due to a lack of political
In his initial prediction for 2004, Coen projected that overall ad spending
will show "significant" improvement with a 6.5% growth rate, to $263.8 billion,
due to the Summer Olympic Games and "Campaign 2004."