Offering a modest, edging on bullish, view of the road ahead for virtual reality, Greenlight Insights has released a forecast that predicts that total U.S. VR annual revenues will reach $38 billion in 2026.
Greenlight, in itsVirtual Reality Industry Report: Fall 2016, is also predicting that VR hardware – head-mounted displays, VR cameras, etc. – will represent 61% of total VR industry revenues by then.
Within that grouping, the 360-degree spherical camera sector will see revenues approach $4.6 billion by 2026. Though VR cameras represent less than 1% of the market today, it will rise to 12% of VR industry revenue by 2026, the study found.
The forecast also sees VR being dominated by consumer spending on gaming until 2020. However, the $1.4 billion generated by consumer-related VR experiences will be surpassed by that time by enterprise experiences, driven by workforce training, the study noted.
“The Playstation VR launch and Microsoft’s entry are important events, but we’ve identified a number of pivotal changes that we expect will alter the trajectory of the entire VR industry,” said Clifton Dawson, CEO of Greenlight Insights, in statement. “A clear shift from tethered to standalone HMDS, a timeline for 5G across several global markets, and the viability of VR for non-entertainment will fuel the market beyond 2020.”
“Many observers have made predictions about the VR industry that are highly optimistic,” added said Stephen Marshall, SVP of Greenlight Insights. “In this rapidly developing industry, the most useful forecast is one that reflects the very different VR, AR, and MR modalities, as well as distinctive use cases and market drivers. This is the approach Greenlight has taken with this new forecast.”
Greenlight Insights and Road to VR released the study amid this week’s VR Strategy Conference in San Francisco.