Forrester Predicts IP-Phone Growth


With each passing quarter, the wireline regional Bell operating companies
typically report flat or negative primary-line growth. That trend will likely
get worse if a new Forrester Research Inc. report is correct.

Forrester predicted that mobile and high-speed broadband networks, including
cable, will siphon $9 billion from the incumbent telephone providers by

One-half of that $9 billion will come from voice mail and call waiting,
Forrester said.

'Broadband providers will also take voice business away from traditional
service providers as they begin to offer voice-over-IP [Internet protocol]
service in 2002,' Forrester senior analyst Charles Golvin said in a prepared

'By 2006, these packet-voice offerings will displace 4.26 million traditional
lines and nearly $1.5 billion in annual revenue,' he added.

Forrester predicted that more than 50 percent of U.S. homes will have
high-speed Internet service by 2006.

The company expects broadband revenue to grow from $6 billion in 2001 to
$23.3 billion in 2006, while wireless revenue jumps from $46 billion to $85

Revenue from dial-up, long-distance and local telephone will all drop between
15 percent and 30 percent from 2001 through 2006, the company