Senior vice president of forecasting Robert Coen of McCann-Erickson
Worldwide's Universal McCann released his latest outlook on ad spending Monday,
which calls for a 'modest' uptick in 2002.
'We expect modest but positive growth [of 2.4 percent] in U.S. advertising
spending to a projected total of $239.3 billion' next year, Coen told the UBS
Warburg LLC Media Conference in New York Monday.
On a global basis, he said, total ad spending should gain 2.2 percent to
$466.1 billion in
Total ad spending in the United States should drop 4.1 percent to nearly
$233.7 billion this year, Coen noted. Worldwide, he added, ad spending should
fall 1.7 percent to $456.1 billion in 2001.
Relative to sectors, Coen projected that national U.S. cable networks will
garner a 4 percent rise in ad revenues in 2001 to $11.4 billion.
Conversely, Coen estimated that ABC, Fox, NBC and CBS will sustain a
collective 3.5 percent decline in advertising to $15.3 billion this year. The
syndication market, meanwhile, is expected to post a 2.5 percent advance to some
'We believe that the U.S. economy will begin to start moving back upward in
the first quarter of 2002,' Coen said, adding, 'the Winter Olympics [in
February] and the early political primary-election contests will help to start
the advertising recovery early next year.'
Worldwide ad spending for the current year, however, is 'now expected to post
the first decline since World War II,' Coen said. Because the terrorist attacks
of Sept. 11 drove an already soft economy into recession, he added, '2001 [will
be] one of the worst years for U.S. advertising growth in recent times.'
Another negative factor was 'the burst of the high-tech [and
Internet-related] bubble that had fueled so much advertising in the U.S. in