Myers Reports said Monday that its Tuesday newsletter will release a revised
U.S. ad-spending forecast for 2002 reflecting a 5.7 percent decrease.
That's 'slightly more bullish' than its earlier prediction of a 7.4 percent
decline for next year.
That 7.4 percent fall to more than $180 billion for 2002 had been suggested
as a 'worst-case scenario, based on the potential for continued domestic
terrorist strikes,' editor Jack Myers said.
The reason behind the more optimistic revision stemmed from Myers 'slightly
upgrading the prospects for network television and magazines.'
The ad-supported basic-cable networks should account for $8.9 billion in
2002, down 6 percent, while local/regional cable should grow 5 percent to finish
just over the $4 billion mark, Myers added.
For 2001, Myers projected a 6.8 percent drop in overall ad spending to just
over $191 billion. Of that total, network cable should garner nearly $9.5
billion (off 3 percent) and local/regional cable $3.8 billion-plus (up 5
percent), he estimated.
Myers pointed out that his latest forecasts are 'not consistent with those of
Universal McCann's [senior vice president] Robert Coen, who predicted a 2002
spending increase of 2.4 percent' Monday at the UBS Warburg LLC Media
Besides claiming that his own forecasts have been 'the most accurate' in the
past several years, Myers said Coen's had gone from being 'overly pessimistic'
in 1999-2000 to 'overly positive' for 2001-2002.
'Long-term,' Myers added, 'we continue to believe that there is little
likelihood of a sustained upturn in the media economy until