New York --Irwin Gotlieb believes the third inflection point for the digital world is coming soon.
Pointing to the birth of the Web and its crash circa 2001 as the first two defining moments, the CEO of global media management and investment agency GroupM, speaking at Multichannel News/B&C's OnScreen Media Summit here on Oct. 28, told attendees that its third phase, rooted in Internet protocol, will feature abundantly more multicasting that will open the door to more devices and means for marketers to reach advertisers.
Gotlieb, who was interviewed by B&C business editor Jon Lafayette, said that there will be a slew of new devices between now and the Consumer Electronics Show in January, and beyond.
"The second generation of the iPad and all of these things will transform how we consume media, how marketing exploits the media," he said.
Gotlieb said that with consumers reading newspapers on iPads, there is no reason there can't be addressability: "Today, we get the same ads, even though we may have different interests."
He also said that video behind ads will become commonplace. "They'll know you saw an ad twice, and then serve you something different," he stated.
Flanking the new means of delivery will be enhanced measurement. "The way we gather, aggregate, and apply analytics will be completely transformed and inform our marketing strategies and tactics and ability to communicate," he predicted.
Early in the conversation, Gotlieb and Lafayette talked about Google TV and Apple TV, with the advertising executive saying the former would have difficulty gaining ground with some of the "people in this room." He noted that Google TV affords addressability, which is necessary to precede interactivity, improve relevancy and make it much more likely for consumers to "interact with it. That will make consumers find it a much more enjoyable product, and that it's fundamental proposition is not to serve the Web on TV."
Gotlieb also issued a warning to cable companies "standing in the way of progress," saying that developers are going to encroach on MSOs anyway, that throttling bandwidth will not be looked on kindly by the government and that "charging for bandwidth by the gig will be painful."
He added that if the industry doesn't figure out a solution to over-the-top distributors, "the income will flow to third parties, there will be significant lost opportunities" and that the infrastructure owners will "bear the burden of bandwidth requirements." Politely that is a double-whammy, he said, joking that in impolite terms it "sounds much better."
For all the talk of advanced media of today and tomorrow, Gotlieb still talked up the power of traditional TV advertising, which still delivers reach. He said TV helps feed the "top of the funnel," without which, "nothing comes through the bottom." He said TV provides different effects for some products over six months, for others, like movies, over six-week flights. Conversely for Mercedes, the impact can span 25 years, he said pointing to the example of a 12-year-old aspiring to buy the luxury brand as a kid, before having the means to buy it when he's 40.
As to those companies that cut budgets in the wake of the recession in 2008 and into early 2009, he said they lost share points, with the cost to retrieve them being two to three times higher "than what they saved. It was necessary at the time the decision was made," Gotlieb said, "but the cost of reacquiring lost share is quite painful."