Internet-protocol-based services in the North American residential market are
poised for blastoff and could reach as high as $43 billion in revenue by 2006,
according to a new report from Kinetic Strategies Inc.
That exponential growth rate is fueled by a 50-fold increase in cable-modem
connections in the past five years as cablers add telephony and home networking
to the IP-data mix, according to Kinetic.
But the increase in IP-services revenue will come despite slowing growth in
new cable-modem subscribers. Kinetic projected that the growth rate will peak
this year and dwindle by 30 percent each following year through 2006.
The cause? A maturing broadband market, combined with high service fees, will
put up a barrier to more accelerated high-speed adoption, the study concluded.
That will lead to a slowing of cable-modem shipments, which will peak at 6.1
million units in 2003.
Nevertheless, even with slowing new-subscriber growth, North American MSOs
will still boost their subscriber base from 8.7 million at the end of 2001 to
26.9 million in 2006. And while data-only modem shipments will fall,
IP-telephony units and residential multimedia gateways will start to rise in
2004, totaling 36 million units through 2006.
While IP telephony is off to a slow start and won't reach volume deployments
until 2004, by 2006, it will be connecting an estimated 5.8 million customers
with sales in the $900 million range, the report projected.
The systems needed to drive those services will also see a boost, with
provisioning software and integration service sales totaling $135 million and
IP-telephony-infrastructure equipment and software sales rising to more than
$800 million between 2002 and 2006.