TNS Sees Strong Cable Ad Spending in ‘07


Spending on network-cable television is expected to nearly double the pace of overall media spending in 2007, according to a full-year forecast from TNS Media Intelligence.

Outlays on network cable could improve 4.7% in 2007 over 2006 levels, TNS estimated -- a rate that would lead the medium to slightly boost its share of the overall media pie.

At that level, cable would claim 11.9% of total media spending in the United States, up from 11.7% in 2006, when the total media outlays grew 3.8% to an estimated $149.8 billion.

For 2007, TNS is forecasting total ad spending across 18 categories of $153.7 billion, a 2.6% increase that would represent the smallest gain since the media economy emerged from the recession of 2001.

Breaking things down further, TNS anticipates that ad spending will advance 2.1% in the first half of this year, followed by 3.2% amelioration from July through December, paralleling an expected late-year economic uptick.

“Our outlook for 2007 is tempered by the absence of two biennial advertising events -- the [Olympic Games] and federal elections -- which tend to contribute 80-100 basis points to growth rates,” TNS CEO Steven Fredricks said in a prepared statement.

“More significant, we expect share of total ad spending to continue to shift away from the top 100 marketers as media fragmentation enables more brands with smaller media budgets to participate in the market while concurrently helping to damp media price inflation,” he added

A look at the media sectors showed that the Internet, reflecting only display advertising, will lead the way in terms of percentage gains this year. TNS forecast 13.4% growth there, while the syndicated TV market ranked second at 6.6%. Outdoor followed at 5.7%, with consumer and Sunday magazines predicted to advance at a 5.5% rate. Spanish-language media was fifth at 5.4%, ahead of network cable.

Broadcast TV was projected to only generate a 0.6% increase, according to the New York-based company.

On the downside, TNS forecast downturns of 0.9% and 2.8% for newspapers (exclusive of Web contributions) and spot TV, respectively, in 2007.