Video to Swarm the Internet

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Today, Internet video is really just a rivulet
with the real deluge yet to burst into view.

Video, which in 2010 became the biggest single component
of Internet traffic, will increase to more than 50%
of all the bits on the network by the end of 2012, according
to Cisco’s latest Visual Networking Index Forecast.
By 2015, video usage will be seven times last year’s level,
capturing 62%
of Internet

the amount
of global Internet
will quadruple
from 2010 to
2015, reaching
966 Exabytes
(966 bi l l ion
Gigabytes annualy),
to Cisco’s
Visual Networking
(VNI) Forecast.
Meanwhi le,
the average
fi xed broadband speed also is expected to increase fourfold,
from 7 Megabits per second in 2010 to 28 Mbps in 2015.

“The network is going to be taking on a dramatically increasing
load,” Doug Webster, senior director of worldwide
Cisco service-provider marketing, said.

The projected increase of Internet traffic between 2014
and 2015 alone is 200 Exabytes per year — which is more
than the total amount of IP traffic generated globally in
2010, according to Webster.

As for whether the dramatic surge in usage could disable
the Internet at some point, Webster said: “A lot of people
are concerned about that. The service providers are
incented to stay ahead of this demand, and we’re seeing
a very heavy investment in their business to keep up with
this demand.”

Internet video to TVs tripled in 2010 and will increase
17-fold by 2015. Internet video to the TV will be more than
16% of consumer Internet-video traffic in 2015, up from 7%
in 2010, according to the VNI Forecast.

Peer-to-peer file-sharing traffic, while it continues
to grow, is dropping as a percentage of total usage. By
2015, global peer-to-peer traffic will account for 16%
of global consumer Internet traffic, down from 40% in

Wider adoption
of bandwidth caps
— l imits on the
amount of data users
may consume
in a given period
— could affect demand
over the next
several years, Webster
However, caps today
generally affect
less than 2% of all
broadband users,
and “what we’re
seeing is [that] the
growth among everyone
else is more
than making up for
it,” he said.

C i s c o ’s V NI
Forecast is based on analyst projections, in-house estimates
and forecasts, and direct data collection from
more than two dozen service providers around the
world, as well as 500,000 individuals running speedtest