New York -- The Zenith Optimedia Group believes the advertising industry will
begin to see some glimmer of a global turnaround next year.
'We expect at least the beginnings of [worldwide] advertising recovery in
2002,' the advertising company announced in a forecast it promulgated at UBS
Warburg LLC's '29th Annual Media Week Conference' here Monday. Zenith
CEO John Perriss addressed the conference.
After three ad-projection downgrades in one year, the Zenith forecast said,
'Our forecasts have stopped growing gloomier. Our main change since Sept. 11 has
been to lose a further half-percent of U.S.A. growth in 2001 and a full
[percentage] point in 2002.'
Going back 10 years ago, global ad spending 'endured two years of .
contraction -- 3 percent (in real terms) in 1991 and just under zero in 1992.
This time around, we expect two years of contraction again: 2001 is heading for
minus 6 percent in real terms and 2002 for minus 1 percent,' Zenith added.
In dollars, worldwide major-media ad volume, excluding the Internet, will
drop from $327.5 billion in 2000 to $316.4 billion this year, before inching up
to $318.8.billion in 2002 and reaching $330.2 billion in 2003, Zenith
In the United States alone, Zenith said, overall ad spending will fall from
$144.4 billion last year to $135.7 billion this year and $133.6 billion next
year. But the U.S. total won't approach the 2000 level until 2004, when Zenith
projects volume of $141.6 billion.